Friday, December 19, 2008
James Hansen reported to the senate in 2007 that sea level rises may be measured in meters, Al Gore in his Oscar winning but greatly discredited movie asserts that a sea-level rise of 20 feet (more than 6 metres) is a realistic short--term prospect.
Now, in Science Magazine 5 September 2008, a paper entitled
Kinetic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise
W.T. Pfeffer, J.T. Harper, S O'Neel seems to have shown this to be wrong.
From the abstract:
"We...conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable. We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits. More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to a total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0.8 meter"
I would say that the sea-level rise myths of Hansen and Gore are busted.